Susceptible Infectious and Recovered Model for Severity of COVID-19 Pandemic in Nigeria

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has posed a serious threat to the lives of many people across the globe. In Nigeria, the first COVID-19 case was reported on 27^th February, 2020, after an Italian citizen tested positive for Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2), the causative agent of COVID-19. The spread of SARS-CoV-2 remained stable until 21^st April, 2020, where the number of infections in three digits emerged and as of June 20^th 2020, Nigeria has a total of 19,808 confirmed cases, total discharged 6,718 and 506 deaths recorded. The severity of SARS-CoV-2 by far surpasses the coronaviruses that were so far discovered in 2003 and 2012. In this study, a Susceptible Infectious and Recovered (SIR) model for severity of COVID-19 pandemic in Nigeria has been developed to obtain the overall picture of the severity of the disease in Nigeria. Based on the simulation of the fitted model, we arrived at a basic reproductive number (R₀) 1.533931 and an infected individual required 9 days to recover from the disease. The findings indicated that the fitted model satisfactorily mimicked the actual data reported by the Nigeria Center for Disease Control (NCDC). The R₀ obtained showed that on the average one infected individual would spread the COVID-19 to two susceptible individuals.  Though the pandemic is under control, but the government needs to take measures to totally contain the spread of the virus.