PERENNIAL THREAT OF TERRORISM IN PAKISTAN POST-2021: CASE STUDY OF NEWLY MERGED DISTRICTS (NMDS)

Abstract

Pakistan has been a victim of terrorism in different forms and manifestations for decades now. While the state apparatus has been repeatedly applied to quell this menace, the phenomenon has continued to dominate the security dynamics of Pakistan. In this context, this paper examines the evolving security environment in Pakistan’s Newly Merged Districts (NMDs), formerly known as the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), in light of shifting regional geopolitical dynamics. Despite long-standing state efforts to counter terrorism, militant violence continues to shape Pakistan’s security landscape. Focusing primarily on Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), the study explores how a gradual process of radicalisation, driven by grievances, networks, ideology, and enabling conditions, has sustained religious extremism in the region. It contributes to existing scholarship by integrating structural and precipitant factors to provide a comprehensive analysis of why terrorism persists in NMDs. Structural factors identified include political exclusion, social disparities, poverty and weak local economies, governance deficiencies, and a porous border with Afghanistan. Precipitant factors encompass TTP leadership dynamics, organisational restructuring, the support of the Afghan Taliban, reunification of splinter groups, political instability, and the proliferation of financial and logistical resources. Employing a qualitative, exploratory approach based on secondary sources, the study argues that no single factor explains the endurance of terrorism in NMDs. Instead, a combination of long-term structural conditions and short-term triggers necessitates a robust, multifaceted mitigation strategy. It concludes that implementing five Lines of Effort (LOEs) is essential to achieving sustainable peace in the region.