EFFECTIVENESS OF COUNTERING VIOLENT EXTREMISM AND COUNTERTERRORISM IN NIGERIA SINCE 2009: FORWARD MARCH OR ABOUT FACE-TURN?

Abstract

This study collected data from both in-depth interviews and secondary sources. It applies the framework of variations in terrorists’ trajectories and capabilities to determine the effectiveness of Nigeria’s counterterrorism efforts. Capturing three Nigerian administrations since 2009, the central arguments of the study is that Nigeria’s counterterrorism strategies and programmes have been complicated and inadequate for the achievement of desirable counterterrorism outcomes. Specifically, Nigeria’s counterterrorism measures have not decisively eroded the growth in Boko Haram’s trajectory and capabilities such as the group’s operational prowess, organisational basing, political relationship and armed hostilities. Despite the official pronouncement that the terrorists have been technically defeated, the counterterrorism scenarios in Nigeria appear to be making about face-turn instead of forward march. To this end, this study concludes that counterterrorism efforts in Nigeria needs strategic awakening.